RethinkX, the group that predicts many profound changes, is also of the opinion that precision fermentation and cellular agriculture will create an entirely new business model: food-as-software. This will disrupt and transform our food and agriculture industries.
The process of disruption
Disruption happens ‘when new products and services create a new market and, in the process, significantly weaken, transform or destroy existing product categories, markets or industries.’ In the field of agriculture, this will happen as a result of the new way of producing proteins. Modern proteins, so they write, will be cheaper than current food options. They will be ‘five times cheaper than existing animal proteins by 2030, and 10 times cheaper by 2035. Eventually proteins will be nearly as cheap as sugar.’
They will not just be cheaper – they will also be more nutritious, healthier, better tasting and more convenient. They will be of a higher quality than current food. RethinkX judgers that by 2030, they will cost half as much as current animal-derived products. Therefore, food-as-software will drive cattle industry farming to bankruptcy.
The value chain
This will have serious implications for the entire value chain. Already, there are meat alternatives that eat into the meat market. This effect will become more severe as prices of meat alternatives fall. Cost parity has not yet been reached – but as soon as this is the case, the meat market will be disrupted. Or even before that. Milk for instance, consists for just 3.3% of proteins. Once modern food technologies can replace these proteins, the milk industry will start to collapse, RethinkX prophesizes.
RethinkX sees this as the trigger for many more disruptions. We will not just witness one disruption, but many disruptions in parallel. The dairy sector will be hit severely. Every product from the cow will be replaced by alternatives, both superior and cheaper. This will have a major impact on land use. The food disruption, so they think, will free up to 80% of land now used for animal husbandry. A huge area, the size of the United States, China and Australia combined.
Consequences
What will happen with this land? This could be an area for active reforestation, with a major impact on carbon dioxide emissions. But even without this, RethinkX judges, this land could store up to 20% of today’s global emissions. Food-as-software would then become a major driving force for restoring a healthy global carbon budget.
All this would be the result of the breakthrough of precision fermentation. The process that allows us to program microorganisms to produce almost any complex organic molecule. Food-as-software will therefore transform our food agriculture industries. We will be able to produce almost any molecule in this way. Food engineers anywhere in the world can use molecular cookbooks to design products; much like software developers design apps.
A continuous improvement process
RethinkX judges that products will improve rapidly, because developers all around the world can improve upon existing models. Each version will be superior to, and cheaper than the last. Moreover, such a production model would be completely decentralized. Fermentation farms will be located in or close to towns and cities. They will constitute a system ‘much more stable and resilient than industrial animal agriculture’.
RethinkX concludes: ‘Modern foods will be up to 100 times more land efficient, 10-25 times more feedstock efficient, 20 times more time efficient, and 10 times more water efficient. They will also produce less waste.’
Interesting? Then also read:
Perspectives for agriculture – the new farming
RethinkX, an evaluation
The mechanism of disruption