RethinkX’s Bradd Libby recently posted two useful articles on technological change. He distinguishes between partial and real solutions, or as he calls it ‘band-aid’ versus ‘bona fide’ or disruptive solutions for problems. Real solutions take place in four sectors of global economy simultaneously: energy, transport, food and labour. And of course, only the latter provide real solutions.
Band-aid processes just treat partial problems. They provide partial improvements and do not change the underlying system. That’s why they require additional measures in order to arrive at a real solution. These dissolve the entire problem and transform the underlying system. Making previous solutions obsolete.
Cows
As an example of a partial solution, Libby mentions the addition of 3-nitrooxypropanol to cow fodder, in Norway. In order to remove the emission of methane gas from their farts. This would remove on average 30% of methane emissions of dairy cattle and 45% of beef cattle. Unsurprisingly, the Norwegian government is the main shareholder of producer DSM-Firmenich. But even so, the product wasn’t popular among Norwegian consumers. After just one year, the product was removed from the shelves.
Nevertheless, the product remained in use. Dairy industry continued to produce this special kind of milk – but mixed with ordinary milk, and sold as such. Consumers in Norway hit the roof when they found out. Some dumped their milk down the drain. In other words, although this technology does reduce methane emissions to a certain extent, the underlying situation didn’t change.
Partial and real solutions
In the dairy industry, such ‘solutions’ appear to be the rule rather than the exception. Libby mentions genetic modification of gut bacteria in order to reduce methane emissions, ‘toilet training cows to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, giving cattle virtual reality headsets to trick them into thinking their living environment is more pleasant than it actually is, autonomous electric grass harvesters so that cattle have access to freshly cut grass even if they don’t have access to the outdoors’….
Libby uses this example to make clear what the difference is between partial and real solutions. Partial solutions remedy just one aspect of the problem, for instance methane emissions. Even though the problem isn’t resolved entirely. Real solutions or disruptions on the other hand ‘address multiple issues and often not only solve problems, they ‘dissolve’ them. They change the system to take away the underlying cause of the problem in the first place.’
Technological changes are interdependent
Libby illustrates this with an article on the interdependence between technological changes. Real solutions or disruptions, he says, not just happen simultaneously, but also interdependently – progress in one area often spills over to other technologies, reinforcing each other.
For instance, better lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries take over in the motor car industry; they can integrate with solar cells, improving home PV systems. In the same way, real solutions or innovations in one sector suddenly spill over to another one. These batteries also work in robots. The facilitate home battery storage. These systems in turn also speed up the application of solar roof panels. An excess of electricity will power robots; and the development of artificial intelligence. In this way, developments reinforce each other.
Precision fermentation
Each battery produced will cause the next one to be even cheaper. Similarly, in California, autonomous taxi services pop up. This might soon become the main taxi product. They could autonomously serve meals, for instance.
Libby writes that precision fermentation will cause a blur between the boundaries of different sectors of the economy. In Boston, Gingo Bioworks recently developed bacterial strains capable of producing many different bio dyes; this facilitates Octarine Bio to scale up their production. In France, the precision fermentation company Ajinomoto, together with AMSilk, intends to produce silk proteins from local resources and renewable energy. At MIT, researchers have developed a desalination system that adapts its output to the intensity of incoming solar radiation.
Real solutions
In the same vein, precision fermentation technologies produce casein and other milk proteins like lactoferrin. Here precision fermentation is a powerful tool that does not just solve problems with milk protein production – it dissolves them. In this vein, the difference between partial and real solutions extends far beyond milk production. Norway has been showing the world how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles for years. The new personal car market in Norway now essentially consists of 100% electric vehicles.
And changes extend far beyond these areas. Electric autonomous vehicles may end the need for private ownership of a car. A handful vehicles that run all day may replace dozens of individually owned cars. Also eliminating the need for most parking spaces. It might mean the end of much of the car-manufacturing industry. In the same vein, robots might disrupt and dissolve the need for much manual and tedious work.
Disruption is coming
Developments in any one of these areas – energy, transportation, food, and labour –may be driving developments in the others. Therefore, Libby concludes, ‘it is impossible to understand any one sector of the global economy without also understanding the others.’ Cost reductions or improvements spread across the economy. That is why disruption is coming.
Interesting? Then also read:
RethinkX, an evaluation
RethinkX: the essentials
Transport-as-a-service, disruption of transportation